Firm dynamics and job creation

Every day, new firms start up, firms grow, and firms die. When firms shrink or die, jobs are destroyed, giving way to new firms and jobs. We trace these patterns for firms born in 2001 right to 2016, using the Longitudinal Business Database.

Digital sector firms are found to have similar birth, growth, and death patterns as firms in comparator industries.But digital sector firms tend to be smaller, and are more likely to die young. But the surviving firms grow faster.

This research note, published in 2019, was prepared for the NZ Productivity Commission.

 

Countervailing Forces: Climate Change Targets, competitiveness, leakage,and innovation

In this report prepared in 2018 for the Ministry for Environment, we examine the ability of New Zealand businesses and sectors to innovate and compete in a world of uneven emissions prices. This work considers a concern that companies will be at a competitive disadvantage if domestic policy moves faster or further than in other countries.

Historically weak innovation and comparatively poor productivity growth are reasons to doubt that New Zealand firms have sufficient capacity to innovate and obtain sources of competitive advantage to offset uneven costs of climate policy. Ultimately, the competitiveness effects of domestic climate change targets will also depend on overseas policy, and the degree of flexibility to adapt policy settings to events here and abroad.

 

Population and Migration Projections

Sense Partners has developed its own demographic projections model, to provide its clients timely and economics-based projections of national or regional population growth.

In 2018 we prepared migration projections for NZ Treasury, to inform its economic projections. Our projection indicated much stronger net migration than Treasury’s own model. This in turn has important implications for tax revenue and public expenditure budgets.

Our approach starts from the assumption that the decision to migrate is typically an economic one. Our models thus include economic indicators. Inward migration is driven by a rapidly growing global population with an increased ability to move to New Zealand. Outward migration is affected by Australia’s economic indicators. This contrasts with Statistics New Zealand’s approach, which assumes that absolute net migration numbers will return to historical averages of the past.

 

The changing nature of work- Presentation

We regularly present to boards, management and conferences on the implications of macro trends for firms, sectors, and policy makers.

In 2018 we presented to the Career Development Association of New Zealand on how the world and jobs are changing, why this matters, and what to do. in this presentation we link global trends to New Zealand regions and conditions to stimulate strategy- and policy- focused discussion.